Austrian Bar, French Soccer

I managed to miss the whole game between South Africa and Mexico while stuck in the office (which turned out to be the better match) but I did manage to watch the Uruguay vs France later in the Austrian pub next to our apartments. The YSSpers commandeered a good deal of the space to watch the game on the projector screen. Terrible game all round I have to say. The YSSPers do however want a vuvuzela to try play. Anyone coming to Vienna with some spare luggage space?

The clocks strikes 12

The Austrian's seem to be just as pedantic about time as the Germans. Imagine being late...travesty! The picture on the right is the clock from the inner courtyard of the Schloss Laxenburg.

The church facing the Schloss chimes on the hour and at midday this is a sign for downing tools and heading to lunch. The Schloss Restaurant has seating in the garden (for the now sunny days) and lunch is a great opportunity to talk to fellow YSSPers about the worlds problems (and of course our party plans). So far I have learnt about public and private goods, cattle ranching, sustainable buildings, India's suicide problem in connection with farming, policy design for early warnings for extreme hydro events, air transportation vs train transportation, the list goes on. Hopefully when I have a clearer view on what people are doing I can broadcast their innovative research and world views.

Schloss Laxenburg

Laxenburg lay on the Roman road from Vienna to Soporn, Hungary. The Germanic people settled there sometime in the 11th century. Laxenburg has been connected with the rulers of Austria since 1306 via some Duke.

The Old Castle (Altes Schloss) is the oldest known building in Laxenburg, located in the Schloss Park (250 hectares). The park boasts a waterfall, a lake that one can take a paddle boat on and a gorgeous bridge guarded by some very proper knights in armour. Its an ideal place to go running or to take a stroll during lunch.

Laxenburg was originally favoured by Habsburgs (royal family) for hunting. The Schloss Laxenburg was acquired as the summer residence of the Habsburgs under Maria Theresia's reign. During the World Wars the buildings were used for the War Victim's Fund and a German tank regiment. After the wars the palace fell into disrepair and was only restored starting in 1962.

That was the abbreviated history, its actually a lot more complicated and involves prisoners and parties and politics.

Walking through the Schloss you can find the most amazing arches, stairways, art but the coolest thing is the Swarovski crystal chandeliers (they're sparkly) in some of the offices.

The other amazing feature is the Belvedere, the children's playroom that is reached after three spiral staircases. There are frescos on all the walls and the view from the highest point in the Schloss is beautiful (people actually get to use it as an office).

There are many other beautiful things about the Schloss like the courtyards and meeting rooms but I'll save that for another post.

Beer Party

What to do on a sunny afternoon in Laxenburg...throw a staff party in the Paradise Garden/Kaisergang. IIASA staff and YSSPers took a break to sit in the sun, drink some beer and eat some pretzels. Its a tough job but someone's got to do it :)

Palace Sommernachtskonzert

Tuesday night was the Vienna Philharmonic Sommernachtskonzert Schönbunn, a free concert given in the palace grounds. As the sun set over Vienna crowds flocked to the impressive gardens of the Palace. Normally you cannot walk on the grass, but for this special occasion any space is hoarded. Its not that clear from the photo but the stage is down the hill. We were inundated with mosquitos and we couldn't hear the music that well but it was definitely worth seeing the palace lit up at night.

The program was a mix of the old and the new. Star Wars at a Palace anyone?

Program
Williams: "Star Wars Main Title" aus "Star Wars" (5:10)
Joseph Strauß: Shpärenklänge. Walzer, op. 235 (8:00)
Liszt: Klavierkonzert Nr. 2 in A-Dur (21:40)
Williams: "Princess Leia's Theme" aus "Star Wars" (4:20)
Williams: "Imperial March" aus "Star Wars" (3:00)
Lanner: Abendsterne. Walzer, op. 180 (7:30)
Nicolai: Mondchor aus "Die lustigen Weiber von Windsor" (4:30)
Holst: "Mars" aus "Die Planeten" (8:00)
Johann Strauß: Wiener Blut. Walzer, op. 354 (9:00)
Josef Strauß: Auf Ferienreise. Polka schnell, op. 133 (2:10)

Decision Analysis: How certain are you?

Its amazing when one wonders through the library at IIASA. Its like stepping back in time to an age of paper journals and stacks. You even have to fill out paper loan forms. The librarian is so helpful and put together a unique reading list to deal with my topics and methodologies. It is the kind of personal service that makes you want to go back time and again. Imagine UCT library with a personalised service.

My current reading list is full of Decision Analysis and Robust Solutions. The founders of decision analysis were all affiliated to IIASA in some form, Ronald Howard being one of them. Its quite scary to grasp just how far their network of influence goes.

Decision Analysis has been around since the 60's, so why am I reading about it now? Bayesian networks, influence diagrams, decision networks are all founded on this concise technique that captures the most incredible amount of data, both subjective and objective. My pile of papers is growing...

The elevator pitch: Your life in 3 minutes

The elevator pitch, a summary of your research for the general population. I'm sure everyone has done an elevator pitch at some stage in their life. That dreaded question "So what do you do/study?". Today is the YSSP Introductory Workshop and each research group has 5 minutes to introduce their research interests and then each student attached to the research group has 3 minutes to give their elevator pitch.

The general idea:
1 minute: Who you are, where you are from and your technical background
2 minutes: Your research question you wish to explore during the YSSP period including your scientific interests for interdisciplinary collaboration.

Marek Makowski (my supervisor) shared a few recommendations that other groups seem to have missed.

1. 2 slides
2. No more than 7 words per line, 7 lines per slide
3. No full sentences that people can read and not focus on you.

Wien Museum - Karlsplatz

The Wien Museum is free on Sundays (which is a nice discount from the normal 6 euros). It was really interesting to see the changes of Vienna from the Roman occupation to the Hungarian Empire and then the modern day occupation. It has city maps, old plans and statues rescued from renovated buildings.

There is a special exhibition currently hosted at the museum showcasing Vienna in film. Its quite interesting to see the depiction of Vienna after seeing the city.
The Karlsplatz Kirche is currently under construction but beautiful nonetheless. The pillars framing the church entrance are carved with complex scenes. There is rumoured (we of limited funds did not pay the massive entrance fee) to be a massive fresco on the ceiling covering roughly 13500 feet.

Prater

The Giant Ferris Wheel of Vienna has been a key landmark since 1897. Its a costly ride at 8.50 euros but well worth the view of the whole city. It has seen many a fire and world war and has been rebuilt a few times. It has been the venue of numerous movies including "The Third Man" and "The Living Daylights".

The Prater itself is an amusement park that opened in 1766. A few YSSPers spent the afternoon and evening trying out the various rides and having a quiet drink in the Beer Garden. The perfect way to end the mammoth sight-seeing tour/walk that covered the whole of Vienna's 1st district.

Structured Modeling Technology

"Structured Modeling Technology (SMT) is based on the paradigm of separating the model specification from its data. Model specification contains the semantic descriptions of the model entities (variables or parameters) and the relationships between them. Based on the model specification it is possible to generate the data structures in the data-warehouse (DW) to store the model data".

SMT was designed to support model-based analysis of complex decision problems. There are many advantages to divide, conquer and integrate (see computer science theory) such as one data repository, reuse of specifications etc.

The Integrated Modeling Environment (IME) group at IIASA developed SMT in 2004. I am hoping to learn how to use the same fundamental modeling techniques (divide, conquer, integrate, document) while developing my thesis methodology.

We could rival the UN

I was asked what percentage of each nationality makes up YSSP 2010. A few numbers for those interested:
Total number of participants: 50
Total number of countries represented: 18
USA: 11,
China: 6,
Austria: 5,
Sweden: 4,
Canada: 3,
Finland: 3,
Russia: 3,
Ukraine: 3,
Hungary: 2,
India: 2,
South Africa: 2,
Brazil: 1,
Germany: 1,
Israel: 1,
Korea: 1,
Malawi: 1,
Pakistan: 1,
Senegal: 1

2% Solution

Today we had a talk by Crawford Stanley (Buzz) Holling. Holling is an ex-director of IIASA and works in Ecological and Evolutionary Sciences and works with the Resilience Alliance. His talk was officially labeled "Broken Society, Broken Ecosystems, and Broken Planet". His talk though was primarily on the 2% solution. 98% of the time, the linear solution works. The data makes sense, but what about the 2%? Who cares? Well apparently all Systems Analysts should, this 2% falls within the realm of the exciting, the challenging and the place that allows us design new methodologies to tackle non-linear problems.

Another interesting quote came from a fellow YSSPer, "All models are bad, some are just more useful than others". Good words to live by at the moment.

There is old and then there is very old

A group of intrepid explorers (namely 7 YSSPers) took to the streets of Schwedenplatz (the Jewish district) for a lively day of sightseeing. Vienna is old and pretty. Apparently Franz Joseph, the emporer, liked pretty things and made sure that all roads leading out of Vienna looked pretty for when he drive by. (The fountain is a memorial for the Black Plague)


Starting at Stephensplatz we managed to catch the Corpus Christi celebrations at noon outside St Stephen's Cathedral (We circled back later). We're not quite sure what the celebration is about but the parade was huge and filled with various religious figures.

Moving on we wandered the streets until we happened upon a truly bizarre clock set between 2 buildings. I can't seem to find anything on it in the guidebooks but I'm going to carry on looking, there is sure to be a story.

We also found a Greek Orthodox Church sandwiched between a pub and a government building. The inside of the church is truly breathtaking with scenes painted on all the walls and ceilings. There was also this grand chandelier (seems like a theme in Vienna), very sparkly. It reminds me of the church hidden in the suburbs in Istanbul with the gold leaf mosaic ceilings. Unfortunately my photos are terrible because I wasn't allowed to use the flash.

There is a famous local painter/environmentalist Friedensreich Hundertwasser in Vienna and his work is part of the cityscape. He designed the power plant and an apartment complex that are bizarre. I can't think of a better description. He felt that "straight lines are godless" and you can quite clearly see it in his designs. He also believed in tree inhabitants as well as human. I've posted 2 pictures, one of the front and one of the side. There are no straight lines, lots of foliage and the ground in uneven to "stimulate the brain". After the decidedly avant-garde we went back to the norm, the St Stephen's Cathedral.

The cathedral is huge with a 450 foot south tower (the ran out of money to finish the north tower). The roof is 200 feet high and sharply pitched. It is covered in ceramic tiles into patterns. The one has the 2 eagles, one looking west, the other east, to Hungary and (I think Germany). This is supposedly the national emblem for Austria (Not confirmed). The interior has soaring pillars with intricate detailing (including frogs and mice and dogs).

We never had time but there is a tour of the catacombs and a walk up the south tower (all 343 steps) when the weather clears.

Day 1: Official Opening

The first day of YSSP 2010 has arrived. The entire group was introduced to the team that has been helping us for the last few months as well as the director of IIASA. We were shepherded through miles of corridors but it was worth it in the end, chocolate pastries...yum.

The official opening consisted of the usual hellos, random logistics, stand up and say where you are from etc. The Head of the Library Aviott John walked us through the weirdest library numbering system I have ever seen. Its all based on shelf number, publication type and year. The library itself is wonderful though and its self-service 24/7.

It seems that most of the staff at IIASA are Windows users (with a UNIX server system) and Apple is only recently gaining in popularity amongst staff and students (My supervisor has a MacBook).

Our day ended with a traditional Austrian Heuriger (wine tavern) meal. The meal starts with breads and spreads, moves on to salads (almost all coated in vinegar) and then meat (schnitzel). Dessert was apple strudel.

International Melting Pot

I'm now installed in my new apartment for the next 3 months: Simmeringer Hauptstrasse 141-143. Its a 2 bedroom apartment on the first floor that opens out onto a patio of sorts. I'm sharing with a fellow female PhD student from India.

I visited IIASA today and found my office in the main building. I'm sharing with Stefan (Canada) and Shou Lio. The place is a maze of corridors and little rooms. The building used to be a castle, and from the gorgeous chandeliers and marble corridors its quite easy to see a forgotten era.

Laxenburg

I have spent the last 3 days in Laxenburg (Lower Vienna), the tiny suburb (I think its classified as a suburb) where IIASA is situated. The place has this very quaint feeling. The shops close by lunch on a saturday (including the only grocery store). People ride around on bicycles and life seems to go at a very slow pace (though this could just be the weekend).

I went exploring to find my office for the next few months, imagine my surprise when the building is a. huge and b. stunning. Its like those pictures you see of old European monuments. There is a park attached that it is rumoured contains a castle, pictures coming soon.

From the room I'm temporarily in I can hear the church bells at every hour and for celebrations (seems there were a few weddings this weekend). The church is directly opposite the entrance to IIASA in the Schlossplatz.

I have also added a new world to my German vocab:
Eissalon. I'm not sure what is actually translates to but I'm going with Ice Cream Parlour. The shop happens to be on the walk from the IIASA to the cafeteria, I see many an ice-cream lunch treat in my future.

Arrival in Vienna

I have arrived safely at my temp housing in Vienna after what seems like a very convoluted transport list. 2 trains, 2 buses and a walk and some lost keys later.

The housing grounds I am on also house the IIASA cafeteria which is where I'll probably be having lunch each day. I'm off exploring Laxenburg today, where I am actually staying for the weekend and going to be working. Its seems like a very sleepy town with minimal shops (think groceries, pharmacy, restaurant and hairdresser - that is all that is listed in the directory). Apparently there is a huge park and a castle to find.

Planning to go into Vienna proper tomorrow once I figure out the German bus schedule, I almost ended up going to the wrong town because they have multiple buses going different routes with the same number.

The adventure resumes

Today is the first day of my travels to Vienna for the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Young Scientists Summer Program (YSSP). With 52 postgraduate students from around the world, this program aims to equip young scientists with modeling, data analysis and policy-making skills needed in organisations around the world.

The program officially starts on Tuesday. I am currently sitting in Dubai International Airport having watched the sun rise earlier. Its sweltering outside (well in comparison to the cold front I left last night).

Visiting SAWS

Simon Mason from IRI is visiting South Africa for a project with the South Africa Weather Bureau (SAWS). I had the opportunity to go to Pretoria to ask a few questions to the expert himself. Below I have listed a few things I learnt on my trip:

There are 3 attributes that one must consider in verification of forecasts:
• Resolution: Conditioning on the forecast. If you forecast something, does it happen? A forecast is useful if you have some resolution. Difficult to measure (need lots of data). Good for regions not grid boxes.
• Discrimination: Conditioning on outcomes. If it rains, did we forecast it. Needs less data. Can get map
• Reliability: Measures confidence and bias. Not useful on its own. Need to use (Resolution ∪ Discrimination) ∩ Reliability

Defining a region of study:
It is worth starting at 20 degrees latitude and longitude on each side of area interested and then narrow down by looking at diagnostic maps from GCM to downscaled. Easy to do with CCA. If looking at geo-potential height as an indicator, then the region may need to be bigger to include larger scale synoptic conditions.

Some extra literature for my spare time:
[1] R. Hagedorn and L. A. Smith. Communicating the value of probabilistic forecasts with weather roulette. Meteorological Applications, 2008.
[2] S. J. Mason. Recommended procedures for the verification of operational seasonal climate forecasts. 2010.
[3] A. H. Murphy and D. S. Wilks. A case study of the use of statistical models in forecast veri- fication: Precipitation probability forecasts. Weather and Forecasting, 13:795–810, September 1998.
[4] M. S. Roulston and L. A. Smith. Evaluating probabilistic forecasts using information theory. Monthly Weather Review, 130:1653–1660, June 2002.
[5] M. K. Tippett and A. G. Barnston. Skill of multimodel enso probability forecasts. Monthly Weather Review, 136:3933–3946, 2008.

Oweek: The undergrads are back

Oweek on Campus is always crazy with everyone signing up for courses, tutorials and societies. I've been splitting my tine between teaching Python to the EGS Honours students for CSAG and helping out at the ballroom stand.