Gorge and Glacier: The frosty Alps

Saturday morning were trekked up to the Sigmund-Thun Klamm, a gorge carved out by a glacier. We walked along wooden walkways through these high rock walls with crystal clear water gushing below. The gorge was originally developed as a tourist attraction in 1893 and later the boardwalk had to be condemned in 1938. Reopened in 1992, it is a 320m path through the gorge and about 32m deep. The wall of the gorge have a selection of striking rock formations, eddies and potholes. We noticed a few on the walk, namely the Gorge Ghost and the Gorge Witch complete with hook nose.

The Klamsee is an area in the Kapruner Valley on the outskirts of the Hohe Tauern National Park. The Dam at the top of the gorge has an amazing view of this valley. We stopped at the waterfall/edge of the dam and looked over the lake of blue/green water.










We cut our walk short at the gorge to maximise our time on the glacier. The Glossglockner Glacier is nestled high in the Alps (3798m). We drove up the windy roads higher and higher and ascended into the clouds. The weather has been awful all weekend, it hasn't stopped raining since we boarded the bus in Simmering. The peaks were shrouded in fog and as we ascended the fog got worse until at times we couldn't see out of the bus windows. Miraculously the fog lifted briefly when we arrived to reveal a gorgeous glacier.

We walked down to the glacier (well almost) and then took the Glacier Railway back up to save time. As we returned to the bus the rain started and turned into snow as we started driving home. Nice and chilly.

Zell am See

Zell am See is a quaint little town nestled between the soaring Alps and beautiful lake. We arrived in the early evening and after dinner took a walk around to see the town at night. We found a fountain on the edge of town that is either a Hundertwasser or a monument to him.

The hostel is on the water's edge with a beautiful view of the snowcapped mountains, vibrant green hills and peaceful lake.

Podcasts: The gurus speak

IIASA Podcasts are fascinating to listen to as researchers here discuss the challenges we face within the next decade. The topics are diverse from Global Health to Climate Change. I particularly like the podcast by Buzz Holling on "Living with Transformation". If you have some free time, grab a podcast and become aware.

Vernissage

Tonight saw the opening of the Kasiergang Photo Exhibition by various students of Frank CMYK. The wine flowed freely with some tempting nibbles on the side. The photographs covered a vast spectrum of topics. I particularly liked the black and white shots of industrial sites around Vienna.

The highlight though was the entertainment, a band consisting of various IIASA staff members (Health & Global Change group).

We took advantage of the break in the rain to sit outside and reflect on the process each YSSPer has made in the past 2 weeks (general consensus is not as much as expected).

We have however decided that staging a "Dance your PhD" event would be awesome (youtube it). Though this may be the copious amounts of wine talking.

IME: Multiple Criteria Analysis

Marek Makowski gave a seminar today on Multiple Criteria Analysis for the Integrated Modeling Environment (IME) group.

Integrated model analysis helps one analyse a manageable number of solutions having different trade-offs between (conflicting) criteria. There are two different types available. Descriptive (simulations) which is alternative-focused. The input is the decisions and the outcomes the goals. The other is Prescriptive (optimisation) is goal-orientated. The inputs are the goals (preferences) and the outcomes are the decisions. Where there are goals, one needs multiple criteria analysis.

IME IIASA developed a Multi-criteria Analysis tool for an energy project a few years ago. The tool is fairly easy to use and available to the public (along with some introductory and advanced papers). Our next session is a hands on workshop for using the tool.

In other news I skipped Adaptive Dynamics this morning, the PHD Comic below seems rather apt, the lecture venue is literally just down the hall.

Bioenergy: Musings of Tim Searchinger

Tim Searchinger hails from Princeton University. He gave a talk last night entitled "Bioenergy and Its Implications for Feeding the World Without Cooking the Planet" for IFF and a few YSSPers braved the deluge of rain to hear him. I knew very little going into the talk but he managed to both explain the field and the gaps of knowledge brilliantly. He has definitely been one of the best speakers I've heard this year.

Biofuels is a rather controversial topic if you read about emissions guidelines and the errors in the accounting of greenhouse gas emissions. He highlighted a few areas that the world needs to look at/study. More efficient cropland (increase yields or even look at what crop yields are...the data is terrible or unavailable), catalogue of "other" land and development of new fertilizer production with slow release nitrogen.

Final words: Don't forget the "D" in R&D

PPA: What is Public Policy Analysis

IIASA/YSSP offers students a series of seminars covering a variety of modeling and social topics. Today is the start of a six part seminar series on Public Policy Analysis by Stephan Ney. The overall objective for the course is "to introduce YSSP students to the approaches, frameworks and methods of contemporary policy analysis".

Today we delved into the realm of sociology to public policy analysis. As a scientist with no/little sociology background the question is firstly what is the definition[1], something I discovered is not actually that easy to answer.

Firstly what is POLICY? Try name some examples. You immediately get Health Care, Foreign, Education, Population etc. What about smaller scale? Gun control, Gas Emissions, Public Procurement, the list goes on. What do they all have in common? A set of rules, intentions, sequence of actions, normative and mostly government initialised. We finally agreed that Policy is an outcome/stance/process that has an underlying theory usually with with desired goals and an evaluative standard.

Some nice definitions include: "web of decisions and actions that allocate values" - Easton or "Policy is rather like the elephant - you recognise it when you see it, but you cannot easily define it" - Cunningham.

Moving on to PUBLIC, what makes a policy public? Start with what is not public like corporate. Then there are "Corporate Social Responsibility" policies. It can be argued (indeed it was) that while the corporate is pursuing some private interest it is of public interest. The consensus is that Public means it is of public interest (collective interest), usually requires some sort of oversight or government action and is defined by civil society.

Now ANALYSIS: Why analyse policies? It affects us, to improve things, efficiency, knowledge acquisition, transparency, evaluation, decision-support, effects of. You could probably name quite a few more.

[1] H. Hugh Heclo (1972), “Policy Analysis”, British Journal of Political Science, Vol.2, No.1 (Jan 1972), pp.83-108

Bring out the science heavyweights: Levien and Neureiter

Roger Levien and Norma Neureiter are both on IIASA's Endowment Board of Trustees. Roger Levien is the founder of YSSP and gave a talk on why he felt the world needed a program like YSSP. IIASA was initially founded by 12 National Member Organisations (NMOs) in 1972 as a collaboration agreement for "Applied Systems Analysis". Levien himself had been part of a graduate summer program at RAND in the USA. He describes it as a life changing experience, integrating research and policy, especially around operations research as it was then dubbed.

The funniest thing we learnt today was that the program was meant to be called "Summer Program for Young Scientists" or SPYS, which during the Cold War wasn't the most politically correct name hence YSSP.

Norman Neureiter talks about Science Diplomacy. Can you be diplomatic in Science? Neureiter believes that Science Diplomacy can bridge the cultural divide between nationals who for whatever reason disagree. His examples ranged from China, Russia, Poland and France. Each nation has research projects or exchanges with the USA that has paved the way for more political agreements. It was an interesting trip through politics, science and history from the view of a systems analyst.
Further reading for those interested:

• “The Pervasive Role of Science, Technology and Health in Foreign Policy: Imperatives for the Department of State”, Office of International Affairs, National Research Council, National Academy Press, Washington, DC, 1999.
• “New frontiers in science diplomacy”, The Royal Society, Policy Document RS1619, London, 2010
• “Science and technology in the Department of State”, by Norman P. Neureiter, Technology in Society, vol. 26 (2004), pp.303-320
• Speech on science and diplomacy by the UK Foreign Secretary, David Milliband, at the Royal Society, Jan. 12, 2010.
• Assorted articles/editorials in SCIENCE, vol. 315 (2007), p.769; vol. 305 (2004), p. 1677; vol. 326 (2009), p. 1459; etc.

A link in a long chain

The YSSP has moved into its third week of work, activities and seminars. One of the most interesting outcomes for me has been the connections of topics amongst the participants, we're suddenly no longer an individual doing research, but a long chain made up of many small links. I suddenly have this feeling of perspective, I can see a student producing the data I use, talk to someone using the products I'm producing and then seeing how policies are designed based on that product analysis.

The networking opportunities here are also phenomenal. The Council of IIASA (The Powers That Be) met yesterday for their bi-annual review of research and strategic planning. I was lucky enough to be invited to the council lunch afterwards to speak to the South African, German and Indian representatives.

The rest of the week is filled with new challenges.
Today we have a lectures by Roger Levien, the founder of YSSP, on the need for systems analysts and Norman Neureiter on Science Diplomacy.
Wednesday is the start of a course of Public Policy Analysis and a seminar on Bioenergy.
Thursday is filled with a seminars on Adaptive Dynamics (Micro-Evolution to long-term evolution) and on Multiple Criteria Analysis (including Pareto optimisation).
Friday the YSSP group are heading to Zell am See for a weekend of hiking in the Alps.

Somewhere in this we still have to find a full day to do work. Its going to be back to the sleep when you're dead philosophy :)

Madama Butterfly - Vienna State Opera House

Last night I went the Vienna Opera to see Madama Butterfly, the final performance of the season. The Opera House is truly awe-inspiring, with the most decadent furnishings and space. My camera really couldn't quite capture the ambience created.
















I bought a standing ticket (Stehplatz) for 4 euros, for which I had a direct view of the stage but had to stand through the three acts. There are roughly 550 standing tickets sold every performance. You have to start queueing at roughly 5.30pm for an 8pm performance to get a ticket but it is well worth the effort (the only other tickets left were 210 euros).

The singer playing Pickington wasn't as strong as Madame Butterfly which was distracting but overall the performance was beautiful. I'm hoping to catch the last ballet performance next week for the same price, who said culture had to be expensive.

Eisenstadt

Eisenstadt ("Iron City") is well worth a visit for a few hours. Its about an hour away from Vienna and boasts a rather high density of churches and Haydn-named objects. Eisenstadt is a capital of a region in Austria called Burgenland. Markus, Aapo and I took on the 34C heat to wonder the city.

The Schloss Esterhazy is a rather impressive palace for the size of the city. Haydn was neither born nor died in Eisenstadt but his presence is felt everywhere. Joseph Haydn was under the patronage of the Esterhazy family and lived in Eisenstadt while composing. Hadyn's mausoleum is attached to the Bergkirche, a rather eclectic church (note the roof configuration) that looks like they just kept adding the building without a true plan.

The Schlosspark however steals the show entirely. There is a mini-lake (its bigger than a pond) surrounded by soaring trees, a Winter garden/Orangery and a beautiful Leopoldinentempel overlooking a pond. This tranquil setting would make an awesome picnic spot.


The highlight of our day came when we stepped into the church exhibition for which you are meant to pay 3 euros. We had no clue what was on offer in the museum and hence asked the attendant. On realising we weren't religious history fans let us in for free because he felt the exhibit would be of no interest to us...Only the Austrians would charge the interested. We did have to sign the guestbook with our countries though.

Eins...Zwei...Drei...

I'm learning German very slowly. I have opted not to do the formal classes which are an hour each for 10 hours total. Markus (German YSSP) has kindly offered to instruct some of us in German. Yesterday we started with counting. I can now count up to 20 and in theory everything past that too. My pronunciation needs a lot of work. We also covered how to ask for a table in a restaurant and how to order a meal and ask for the bill. I got to try some of this on the barman last night while ordering.

Most important phrase of the day: Entschuldigen Sie bitte! - Excuse me please

The picture attached is a sign from a hotel around the corner from the Naschmarkt. Its a black cat and the story goes that these signs were displayed over shop doors to advertise the trade or services available and the name. They are made from wrought iron and can still be seen in a few places around Vienna. The Wien Museum has an example of a hedgehog and the lantern that gave Schonlanterngasse its name. I'll post more as I see them, I think these signs are wonderful.

Blooming and Booming

Today was a mish mash of various events with a lot of soccer thrown in. The day started with a visit to the Museum of Applied Art (MAK) which is Vienna's answer to the V&A in London. The collection itself if not nearly as impressive but the building itself is a work of art. Marble pillars, painted ceilings, fountains embedded in the walls. The building is worth a visit just to gawk at (and its free on Saturdays). The Design Shop off the atrium is a showcase of how art and functionality can be combined to create quirky yet beautiful practical pieces.

The MAK borders the Stadtpark (City Park) and everything in the park seem to be blooming. The clock above is a perfect example (I wasn't tall enough to get a full picture).

On the way to lunch at Naschmarkt I got horribly disorientated and landed up at the wrong exit at Karlsplatz, not a tragedy because I stumbled across the Opera Toilet. It sings whenever anyone enters the toilet, a highly amusing spectacle. My other discovery was a beautiful fountain in the gardens around the U-Bahn exit.

Naschmarkt is a vibrant market with a mix of fresh produce, flea market junk, foreign cuisine supply stores and pavement restaurants. A group organised to Toko Ri, the Japanese restaurant within the market. Ordering sushi in German with Japanese names is amusing.

What followed was lots of World Cup match viewing...

The final bit of excitement for the day was a thunderstorm that materialised within minutes over the Danube Island (we were having a BBQ with the Forestry group). Stunning lightning and thunderclaps heralded the rain and so ended the day of sunshine and badminton and bbqing.

Austrian Bar, French Soccer

I managed to miss the whole game between South Africa and Mexico while stuck in the office (which turned out to be the better match) but I did manage to watch the Uruguay vs France later in the Austrian pub next to our apartments. The YSSpers commandeered a good deal of the space to watch the game on the projector screen. Terrible game all round I have to say. The YSSPers do however want a vuvuzela to try play. Anyone coming to Vienna with some spare luggage space?

The clocks strikes 12

The Austrian's seem to be just as pedantic about time as the Germans. Imagine being late...travesty! The picture on the right is the clock from the inner courtyard of the Schloss Laxenburg.

The church facing the Schloss chimes on the hour and at midday this is a sign for downing tools and heading to lunch. The Schloss Restaurant has seating in the garden (for the now sunny days) and lunch is a great opportunity to talk to fellow YSSPers about the worlds problems (and of course our party plans). So far I have learnt about public and private goods, cattle ranching, sustainable buildings, India's suicide problem in connection with farming, policy design for early warnings for extreme hydro events, air transportation vs train transportation, the list goes on. Hopefully when I have a clearer view on what people are doing I can broadcast their innovative research and world views.

Schloss Laxenburg

Laxenburg lay on the Roman road from Vienna to Soporn, Hungary. The Germanic people settled there sometime in the 11th century. Laxenburg has been connected with the rulers of Austria since 1306 via some Duke.

The Old Castle (Altes Schloss) is the oldest known building in Laxenburg, located in the Schloss Park (250 hectares). The park boasts a waterfall, a lake that one can take a paddle boat on and a gorgeous bridge guarded by some very proper knights in armour. Its an ideal place to go running or to take a stroll during lunch.

Laxenburg was originally favoured by Habsburgs (royal family) for hunting. The Schloss Laxenburg was acquired as the summer residence of the Habsburgs under Maria Theresia's reign. During the World Wars the buildings were used for the War Victim's Fund and a German tank regiment. After the wars the palace fell into disrepair and was only restored starting in 1962.

That was the abbreviated history, its actually a lot more complicated and involves prisoners and parties and politics.

Walking through the Schloss you can find the most amazing arches, stairways, art but the coolest thing is the Swarovski crystal chandeliers (they're sparkly) in some of the offices.

The other amazing feature is the Belvedere, the children's playroom that is reached after three spiral staircases. There are frescos on all the walls and the view from the highest point in the Schloss is beautiful (people actually get to use it as an office).

There are many other beautiful things about the Schloss like the courtyards and meeting rooms but I'll save that for another post.

Beer Party

What to do on a sunny afternoon in Laxenburg...throw a staff party in the Paradise Garden/Kaisergang. IIASA staff and YSSPers took a break to sit in the sun, drink some beer and eat some pretzels. Its a tough job but someone's got to do it :)

Palace Sommernachtskonzert

Tuesday night was the Vienna Philharmonic Sommernachtskonzert Schönbunn, a free concert given in the palace grounds. As the sun set over Vienna crowds flocked to the impressive gardens of the Palace. Normally you cannot walk on the grass, but for this special occasion any space is hoarded. Its not that clear from the photo but the stage is down the hill. We were inundated with mosquitos and we couldn't hear the music that well but it was definitely worth seeing the palace lit up at night.

The program was a mix of the old and the new. Star Wars at a Palace anyone?

Program
Williams: "Star Wars Main Title" aus "Star Wars" (5:10)
Joseph Strauß: Shpärenklänge. Walzer, op. 235 (8:00)
Liszt: Klavierkonzert Nr. 2 in A-Dur (21:40)
Williams: "Princess Leia's Theme" aus "Star Wars" (4:20)
Williams: "Imperial March" aus "Star Wars" (3:00)
Lanner: Abendsterne. Walzer, op. 180 (7:30)
Nicolai: Mondchor aus "Die lustigen Weiber von Windsor" (4:30)
Holst: "Mars" aus "Die Planeten" (8:00)
Johann Strauß: Wiener Blut. Walzer, op. 354 (9:00)
Josef Strauß: Auf Ferienreise. Polka schnell, op. 133 (2:10)

Decision Analysis: How certain are you?

Its amazing when one wonders through the library at IIASA. Its like stepping back in time to an age of paper journals and stacks. You even have to fill out paper loan forms. The librarian is so helpful and put together a unique reading list to deal with my topics and methodologies. It is the kind of personal service that makes you want to go back time and again. Imagine UCT library with a personalised service.

My current reading list is full of Decision Analysis and Robust Solutions. The founders of decision analysis were all affiliated to IIASA in some form, Ronald Howard being one of them. Its quite scary to grasp just how far their network of influence goes.

Decision Analysis has been around since the 60's, so why am I reading about it now? Bayesian networks, influence diagrams, decision networks are all founded on this concise technique that captures the most incredible amount of data, both subjective and objective. My pile of papers is growing...

The elevator pitch: Your life in 3 minutes

The elevator pitch, a summary of your research for the general population. I'm sure everyone has done an elevator pitch at some stage in their life. That dreaded question "So what do you do/study?". Today is the YSSP Introductory Workshop and each research group has 5 minutes to introduce their research interests and then each student attached to the research group has 3 minutes to give their elevator pitch.

The general idea:
1 minute: Who you are, where you are from and your technical background
2 minutes: Your research question you wish to explore during the YSSP period including your scientific interests for interdisciplinary collaboration.

Marek Makowski (my supervisor) shared a few recommendations that other groups seem to have missed.

1. 2 slides
2. No more than 7 words per line, 7 lines per slide
3. No full sentences that people can read and not focus on you.

Wien Museum - Karlsplatz

The Wien Museum is free on Sundays (which is a nice discount from the normal 6 euros). It was really interesting to see the changes of Vienna from the Roman occupation to the Hungarian Empire and then the modern day occupation. It has city maps, old plans and statues rescued from renovated buildings.

There is a special exhibition currently hosted at the museum showcasing Vienna in film. Its quite interesting to see the depiction of Vienna after seeing the city.
The Karlsplatz Kirche is currently under construction but beautiful nonetheless. The pillars framing the church entrance are carved with complex scenes. There is rumoured (we of limited funds did not pay the massive entrance fee) to be a massive fresco on the ceiling covering roughly 13500 feet.

Prater

The Giant Ferris Wheel of Vienna has been a key landmark since 1897. Its a costly ride at 8.50 euros but well worth the view of the whole city. It has seen many a fire and world war and has been rebuilt a few times. It has been the venue of numerous movies including "The Third Man" and "The Living Daylights".

The Prater itself is an amusement park that opened in 1766. A few YSSPers spent the afternoon and evening trying out the various rides and having a quiet drink in the Beer Garden. The perfect way to end the mammoth sight-seeing tour/walk that covered the whole of Vienna's 1st district.

Structured Modeling Technology

"Structured Modeling Technology (SMT) is based on the paradigm of separating the model specification from its data. Model specification contains the semantic descriptions of the model entities (variables or parameters) and the relationships between them. Based on the model specification it is possible to generate the data structures in the data-warehouse (DW) to store the model data".

SMT was designed to support model-based analysis of complex decision problems. There are many advantages to divide, conquer and integrate (see computer science theory) such as one data repository, reuse of specifications etc.

The Integrated Modeling Environment (IME) group at IIASA developed SMT in 2004. I am hoping to learn how to use the same fundamental modeling techniques (divide, conquer, integrate, document) while developing my thesis methodology.

We could rival the UN

I was asked what percentage of each nationality makes up YSSP 2010. A few numbers for those interested:
Total number of participants: 50
Total number of countries represented: 18
USA: 11,
China: 6,
Austria: 5,
Sweden: 4,
Canada: 3,
Finland: 3,
Russia: 3,
Ukraine: 3,
Hungary: 2,
India: 2,
South Africa: 2,
Brazil: 1,
Germany: 1,
Israel: 1,
Korea: 1,
Malawi: 1,
Pakistan: 1,
Senegal: 1

2% Solution

Today we had a talk by Crawford Stanley (Buzz) Holling. Holling is an ex-director of IIASA and works in Ecological and Evolutionary Sciences and works with the Resilience Alliance. His talk was officially labeled "Broken Society, Broken Ecosystems, and Broken Planet". His talk though was primarily on the 2% solution. 98% of the time, the linear solution works. The data makes sense, but what about the 2%? Who cares? Well apparently all Systems Analysts should, this 2% falls within the realm of the exciting, the challenging and the place that allows us design new methodologies to tackle non-linear problems.

Another interesting quote came from a fellow YSSPer, "All models are bad, some are just more useful than others". Good words to live by at the moment.

There is old and then there is very old

A group of intrepid explorers (namely 7 YSSPers) took to the streets of Schwedenplatz (the Jewish district) for a lively day of sightseeing. Vienna is old and pretty. Apparently Franz Joseph, the emporer, liked pretty things and made sure that all roads leading out of Vienna looked pretty for when he drive by. (The fountain is a memorial for the Black Plague)


Starting at Stephensplatz we managed to catch the Corpus Christi celebrations at noon outside St Stephen's Cathedral (We circled back later). We're not quite sure what the celebration is about but the parade was huge and filled with various religious figures.

Moving on we wandered the streets until we happened upon a truly bizarre clock set between 2 buildings. I can't seem to find anything on it in the guidebooks but I'm going to carry on looking, there is sure to be a story.

We also found a Greek Orthodox Church sandwiched between a pub and a government building. The inside of the church is truly breathtaking with scenes painted on all the walls and ceilings. There was also this grand chandelier (seems like a theme in Vienna), very sparkly. It reminds me of the church hidden in the suburbs in Istanbul with the gold leaf mosaic ceilings. Unfortunately my photos are terrible because I wasn't allowed to use the flash.

There is a famous local painter/environmentalist Friedensreich Hundertwasser in Vienna and his work is part of the cityscape. He designed the power plant and an apartment complex that are bizarre. I can't think of a better description. He felt that "straight lines are godless" and you can quite clearly see it in his designs. He also believed in tree inhabitants as well as human. I've posted 2 pictures, one of the front and one of the side. There are no straight lines, lots of foliage and the ground in uneven to "stimulate the brain". After the decidedly avant-garde we went back to the norm, the St Stephen's Cathedral.

The cathedral is huge with a 450 foot south tower (the ran out of money to finish the north tower). The roof is 200 feet high and sharply pitched. It is covered in ceramic tiles into patterns. The one has the 2 eagles, one looking west, the other east, to Hungary and (I think Germany). This is supposedly the national emblem for Austria (Not confirmed). The interior has soaring pillars with intricate detailing (including frogs and mice and dogs).

We never had time but there is a tour of the catacombs and a walk up the south tower (all 343 steps) when the weather clears.

Day 1: Official Opening

The first day of YSSP 2010 has arrived. The entire group was introduced to the team that has been helping us for the last few months as well as the director of IIASA. We were shepherded through miles of corridors but it was worth it in the end, chocolate pastries...yum.

The official opening consisted of the usual hellos, random logistics, stand up and say where you are from etc. The Head of the Library Aviott John walked us through the weirdest library numbering system I have ever seen. Its all based on shelf number, publication type and year. The library itself is wonderful though and its self-service 24/7.

It seems that most of the staff at IIASA are Windows users (with a UNIX server system) and Apple is only recently gaining in popularity amongst staff and students (My supervisor has a MacBook).

Our day ended with a traditional Austrian Heuriger (wine tavern) meal. The meal starts with breads and spreads, moves on to salads (almost all coated in vinegar) and then meat (schnitzel). Dessert was apple strudel.

International Melting Pot

I'm now installed in my new apartment for the next 3 months: Simmeringer Hauptstrasse 141-143. Its a 2 bedroom apartment on the first floor that opens out onto a patio of sorts. I'm sharing with a fellow female PhD student from India.

I visited IIASA today and found my office in the main building. I'm sharing with Stefan (Canada) and Shou Lio. The place is a maze of corridors and little rooms. The building used to be a castle, and from the gorgeous chandeliers and marble corridors its quite easy to see a forgotten era.

Laxenburg

I have spent the last 3 days in Laxenburg (Lower Vienna), the tiny suburb (I think its classified as a suburb) where IIASA is situated. The place has this very quaint feeling. The shops close by lunch on a saturday (including the only grocery store). People ride around on bicycles and life seems to go at a very slow pace (though this could just be the weekend).

I went exploring to find my office for the next few months, imagine my surprise when the building is a. huge and b. stunning. Its like those pictures you see of old European monuments. There is a park attached that it is rumoured contains a castle, pictures coming soon.

From the room I'm temporarily in I can hear the church bells at every hour and for celebrations (seems there were a few weddings this weekend). The church is directly opposite the entrance to IIASA in the Schlossplatz.

I have also added a new world to my German vocab:
Eissalon. I'm not sure what is actually translates to but I'm going with Ice Cream Parlour. The shop happens to be on the walk from the IIASA to the cafeteria, I see many an ice-cream lunch treat in my future.

Arrival in Vienna

I have arrived safely at my temp housing in Vienna after what seems like a very convoluted transport list. 2 trains, 2 buses and a walk and some lost keys later.

The housing grounds I am on also house the IIASA cafeteria which is where I'll probably be having lunch each day. I'm off exploring Laxenburg today, where I am actually staying for the weekend and going to be working. Its seems like a very sleepy town with minimal shops (think groceries, pharmacy, restaurant and hairdresser - that is all that is listed in the directory). Apparently there is a huge park and a castle to find.

Planning to go into Vienna proper tomorrow once I figure out the German bus schedule, I almost ended up going to the wrong town because they have multiple buses going different routes with the same number.

The adventure resumes

Today is the first day of my travels to Vienna for the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Young Scientists Summer Program (YSSP). With 52 postgraduate students from around the world, this program aims to equip young scientists with modeling, data analysis and policy-making skills needed in organisations around the world.

The program officially starts on Tuesday. I am currently sitting in Dubai International Airport having watched the sun rise earlier. Its sweltering outside (well in comparison to the cold front I left last night).

Visiting SAWS

Simon Mason from IRI is visiting South Africa for a project with the South Africa Weather Bureau (SAWS). I had the opportunity to go to Pretoria to ask a few questions to the expert himself. Below I have listed a few things I learnt on my trip:

There are 3 attributes that one must consider in verification of forecasts:
• Resolution: Conditioning on the forecast. If you forecast something, does it happen? A forecast is useful if you have some resolution. Difficult to measure (need lots of data). Good for regions not grid boxes.
• Discrimination: Conditioning on outcomes. If it rains, did we forecast it. Needs less data. Can get map
• Reliability: Measures confidence and bias. Not useful on its own. Need to use (Resolution ∪ Discrimination) ∩ Reliability

Defining a region of study:
It is worth starting at 20 degrees latitude and longitude on each side of area interested and then narrow down by looking at diagnostic maps from GCM to downscaled. Easy to do with CCA. If looking at geo-potential height as an indicator, then the region may need to be bigger to include larger scale synoptic conditions.

Some extra literature for my spare time:
[1] R. Hagedorn and L. A. Smith. Communicating the value of probabilistic forecasts with weather roulette. Meteorological Applications, 2008.
[2] S. J. Mason. Recommended procedures for the verification of operational seasonal climate forecasts. 2010.
[3] A. H. Murphy and D. S. Wilks. A case study of the use of statistical models in forecast veri- fication: Precipitation probability forecasts. Weather and Forecasting, 13:795–810, September 1998.
[4] M. S. Roulston and L. A. Smith. Evaluating probabilistic forecasts using information theory. Monthly Weather Review, 130:1653–1660, June 2002.
[5] M. K. Tippett and A. G. Barnston. Skill of multimodel enso probability forecasts. Monthly Weather Review, 136:3933–3946, 2008.